Sep 2012 - IEEE
"Up to 75% of vehicles will be autonomous in 2040"
"It will take between 15 and 20 years until truly autonomous vehicles populate US roads"
"Will make fully autonomous vehicles available to the consumer by 2020. These cars will be able to drive in urban traffic"
"Fully autonomous vehicles which can drive without human intervention and might not even have a steering wheel could be available on the market by 2025"
"They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person at the wheel in a six-year time frame"
"Next generation of their A8 limousine will be able to drive itself with full autonomy"
"Five or six years from now we will be able to achieve true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination."
"Fully autonomous driving ... will happen within the next 10 years"
"Estimated that fully autonomous vehicles would be available on the market within 5 years"
"Uber's fleet to be driverless by 2030. The service will then be so inexpensive and ubiquitous that car ownership will be obsolete"
"Fully autonomous Teslas to be ready by 2018 but notes that regulatory approval may take 1 to 3 more years thereafter."
"Driverless cars to be in use all over the world within the next 10 years"
"Plans to bring first models capable of autonomous highway driving to the market by 2020"
"We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."
"In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY"
"Large number self-driving self-driving cars will be on the road within three years"
"first self-driving cars to appear on the market by 2019, not claimed these would be Volkswagen models."
"Most industry participants now think that self-driving cars will be on the road by 2020 or sooner"
"I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year"
"Aims to be operational with fleets of self-driving taxis in 10 cities of the world by 2020"
"Will bring a fully self-driving (SAE level 4) system on the market for use in a variety of cars in 2019"
"Fully self-driving vehicles by 2021 ... expects that it will take several years longer until Ford will sell autonomous vehicles to the public."
"By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging."
"The sensor hardware and compute power required for at least level 4 to level 5 autonomy has been in every Tesla produced since October of last year."
"At what point will Full Self-Driving Capability features noticeably depart from? - Elon: 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely"
"Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? - Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this."
"It will take no more than four years to have fully autonomous cars on the road."
"I think probably by end of next year end of 2019 self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person."
"Probably technically be able to self deliver Teslas to customers doors in about a year then its up to the regulators"
"We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that."
"We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year"
"We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year."
"I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months.... I think this was all really going to be swept, I mean, the system is improving so much, so fast, that this is going to be a moot point very soon. No, in fact, I think it will become very, very quickly, maybe and towards the end this year, but I say, I'd be shocked if not next year, at the latest that having the person, having human intervene will decrease safety. DECREASE! (in response to human supervision and adding driver monitoring system)"
"We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too"
"we could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some."
"Robotaxis release/deployment... Functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown"
"I am extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I think - I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year, There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together."
"FSD beta rollout happening tonight. Will be extremely slow & cautious, as it should."
"I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%"
"I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year."
"Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can't speak for regulators though."
"Next significant release will be in April. Going with pure vision - not even using radar. This is the way to real-world AI."
"Build 8.3 of FSD should be done QA testing by end of next week, so that's roughly when download button should show up"
"Due to high levels of demand for FSD Beta, adding "Download Beta" button to Service section of car display in ~10 days"
"True. Anyone paying attention to the rate of improvement will realize that Tesla Autopilot/FSD is already superhuman for highway driving & swiftly getting there for city streets."
"Gating factor is achieving & proving higher safety with pure vision than with vision+radar. We are almost there. FSD Beta V9.0 will blow your mind."
"Button timing of May is aspirational. Depends on how well limited beta of V9.0 goes, but I would be surprised if wide beta (aka button) is later than June. FSD subscription next month is a sure thing."
"Pure vision Autopilot is now rolling out in North America. There will be an update of this production release in 2 weeks, then FSD beta V9.0 (also pure vision) a week later. FSD subscription will be enabled around the same time."
"I think we're maybe a month or two away from wide beta. But these things are hard to predict accurately. The work we had to do for pure vision driving was needed for FSD, so much more progress has been made than it would seem."
"We had to focus on removing radar & confirming safety. That release goes out next week to US production. Then a week or two to polish pure vision FSD & v9 beta will release. Difference between v8 & v9 is gigantic."
"... it could be closer to 2035 before we begin to see any meaningful deployments of fully self-driving vehicles"
"This is only speculation, but I think we'll achieve full self-driving, maybe what you would call four or five, I think later this year."
"I know I'm the boy who cried FSD... But man, I think we'll be better than human by the end of the year"
"Vehicles capable of performing all tasks equivalent to a human driver will likely not become publicly accessible until after 2035"
"Robo-taxis expected to become commercially available at a large scale by 2030. Fully autonomous trucking to reach viability between 2028 and 2031."