I was waiting for Axel to have a pee yesterday before he went to bed, and was idly thumbing through my standard-issue-for-new media-nutters copy of Nicholas Negroponte’s Being Digital.

It’s been a while since I read the book, but I remember it being thin on actual predictions (and therefore slightly disappointing), but I suddenly saw one, on page 173. He must have been pretty confident about it too, since he (almost) names a date:

“I think videocassette rental stores will go out of business in less than ten years.”

The book was published in 1995. In 2004, the home rental market is as far as I know about as buoyant as it was then. I see Viacom’s looking to sell Blockbuster, but it doesn’t appear it’s because they think the market’s about to plop.

Still, every guru has to get it really wrong at least once. Not heard much from Nicholas recently though.

Maybe I should ask if he wants some help on his rather 1995 website?